Syria: A Possible Russian Move

Source : Moon of Alabama

There is a currently flurry of diplomacy with regards to Syria. The Iranian Foreign Minister Salehi just visited Jordan. Salehi will next fly to Damascus. Next week the Qatari foreign minister will visit Tehran. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry just talked with the Turkish Foreign Minister Dovatoglu. Kerry is now in Moscow for a talk with the Russian president Putin (The talk starts at least three hours late. Was Putin making a point with this?) Putin recently talked on the phone with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahoo. On May 10 the British Prime Minister Cameron will also have a talk with Putin in the southern Russian resort Sochi.

The U.S. still demands that Moscow gives up on Syria and presses for Assad to leave. Moscow will, I believe, not agree to that.

In this diplomatic context Sunday's Israeli airstrikes near Damascus were a message to Putin, certainly coordinated with Washington. "Look what we will do if you don't give in. Next time we will bomb the Syrian air fields. Then their troops." At the same time the flurry of unfounded "chemical weapon" allegations are used to prepare the "western" public for a military intervention.

The big question is of course what Obama will do after Kerry and Cameron fail to change Putin's stand. There is a risk that Obama will decide to overthrow Assad by overt military means. He committed himself to that when he demanded that "Assad must go." It will be hard, if not impossible for him, to retreat from that. Military means would include a "no-fly zone" which would start to be implemented by destroying whatever is left of Syria's air defenses. Naturally with lots of collateral casualties.

Putin should plan on how to counter that. He should send a signal that can only be understood as "Up to here and no further." He should announce it on May 9, the 68th anniversary of Russia's victory over Nazi Germany.

On request of the Syrian government a squadron of 24 Russian fighter jets could be dispatched to Syria. They would be stationed at two Syrian airports. At each airport a battalion of Russian paratroopers would take care of the local security. Some long range early warning radar and some command and control elements would also be needed.

Supplies would come through Iranian and Iraqi airspace as well as though the port of Tartus where Russia's new permanent Mediterranean fleet is just arriving.

The declared sole and exclusive task of the Russian squadron would be to defend sovereign Syria's airspace from any outer interference. The message to Washington (and Tel Aviv) would be clear. Attacking Syria means attacking the Russian air force. Might you want to think twice about that?

Such a Russian move would be a heavens gift for Obama. He could back down from his demand that Assad has to go without losing much face. He could join everyone else in Washington in blaming Putin while appearing reasonable in not risking a wider war.

Lavrov: Russia ‘Not in Regime Change Game’ in Syria

Source :   RIA Novosti

MOSCOW, March 8 (RIA Novosti) – Russia would not pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down and welcomes Syrian opposition’s tentative willingness to hold talks with his regime, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday.

“We’re not in the regime-change game. We are against interference in domestic conflicts,” Lavrov said in an interview to BBC, transcribed on Russian Foreign Ministry’s website.

“It is not for us to decide who should lead Syria. It is for the Syrians to decide,” Lavrov added.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria in early 2011, Russia has opposed all foreign attempts to put pressure on Assad, insisting that the crisis – which has evolved into a full- scale civil war – should be resolved by Syrians alone, preferably through political means.

Political dialogue in Syria seemed unlikely, given that the Syrian opposition has made the departure of Assad and his close allies their main demand. But in January, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, the leader of the main opposition group, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, said th the group was willing to consider the possibility of negotiations with the regime.

“I’m glad that the latest discussions and the latest gestures from t opposition, and statements from some of those who support the opposition, hint that they would be prepared to start negotiation with some negotiating team without asking President Assad to ste down,” Lavrov said on Thursday.

News Analysis: Syria gov't shows more leniency toward dialogue than opposition

Source :   Xinhua

DAMASCUS, Feb. 27 (Xinhua) -- Syria has made it clear that it is ready for dialogue, even with the armed parties, throwing thus the ball into the court of the opposition groups that have not so far shown any leniency in its stances and made the dialogue conditional on the departure of the current administration.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem has recently announced that Syria was ready to open dialogue with the opposition, even the armed groups, a step which was seen by observers as aiming to placate the Syrian people who are eager to reach a political solution to the country's nearly two-year crisis.

However, Salim Edris, the so-called chief of staff at the rebels Syrian Free Army, turned down al- Moallem's offer for dialogue, stipulating that President Bashar al-Assad should step down ahead of any dialogue and called for the cessation for all kinds of killing and the withdrawal of the Syrian army from cities.

Edris' conditions mirrored the ones by the political opposition abroad that also said Assad's departure should be the result of any dialogue.

Yet, the two parties of the conflict have apparently come under international pressure to embark on direct dialogue ahead of a Rome meeting of the Friends of Syria group slated for Thursday in the hope of narrowing the schism between both conflicting parties.

Syrian observers, meanwhile, believe that the Syrian crisis could not be solved but through dialogue especially as military operations and attacks have reached the capital, prompting thousands of Syrians to flee the country and many others to lock themselves inside their houses.

"I can see that the political solution is now more clear ... it 's very important factor in the Syrian crisis ... many of the countries in the world support it," Bassam Abu Abdullah, an expert in international relations, told Xinhua in an interview Wednesday.

Abdullah, who is also a university professor in international law, said that al-Moallem's call for dialogue was "very important . .. and we considered it as some kind of an opening from the Syrian government toward dialogue," adding that "We are going toward the political solution."

Abdullah's optimism has come as the world countries have grown more frustrated with the prolonged crisis and have accelerated moves and calls to draw the crisis to an end especially after the growing fear of the radical Islamists who have joined the fight against the Damascus government in the hope of establishing an Islamic state.

On Tuesday, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, following a meeting with his U.S. counterpart John Kerry in Berlin, that both Russia and the United States would spare no effort to create the suitable climates to step up the process of dialogue between the Syrian authorities and the opposition.

Lavrov stressed that it is necessary for the two sides to sit around the negotiations table, indicating that no one could solve the Syrian problem other than the Syrians themselves.

He called on the opposition to "declare itself in favor of dialogue" when it meets various Western leaders, including Kerry, at Thursday's crunch talks in Rome.

The Russian minister stressed that the Syrian government officials had "assured" Moscow that they "have a negotiating team and are ready to start dialogue as soon as possible."

He also called on the opposition to name a negotiating team.

Moreover, Lavrov accused "extremists" of hindering a political solution and said they are betting on a political solution.

Abdullah, the Syrian expert, concurred and said that "the extremists in the opposition continue their attempts to destroy this way (the political process) ... every day they are bombing and killing people."

He also accused extremists, mainly the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra group of attempting to rupture the dialogue, saying "They are not looking for democracy or for making life better ... this is a terrorist organization."

He distinguished between different kinds of armed rebels and said there were some rational groups that would accept dialogue.

"We should isolate the extremists. We should isolate the terrorists. We cannot put all armed people in one basket," he said, stressing that the "Syrian government is seriously speaking abou the political solution."

Meanwhile, Abdullah confessed that the negotiations are not easy, but noted that the oppositio should start negotiations.

"Let's talk about everything and then go to the people to know what they want," he stressed, affirming that the Syrian people also would determine the country's future and its political system.

For a Peaceful solution in Syria-prt.II

Editor : Branichild (FB)

Trend.Az: The Syrian government says that the chaos is being orchestrated from outside the country, and there are reports that a very large number of the militants are foreign nationals.

In an interview recently broadcast on German television, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that the government did not start the conflict and the militant groups were the ones killing Syrian citizens and destroying the country's infrastructure.

*... New arms supplies from Turkey and Saudi Arabia for terrorists in Syria, are opposed the political agitation by the Obama administration, which Islamist FSA [al-nusra] terrorists, - logistical and support even with material equipment, when John Kerry said:

"We are examining and developing ways to accelerate the political transition that the Syrian people want and deserve," Kerry said. "We need to help them to deliver basic services and to protect the legitimate institutions of the state."

TheDailyStar Lebanon: Officials in the United States and Europe have said the Obama administration is nearing a decision on whether to provide non-lethal assistance to carefully vetted fighters opposed to Syrian President Basher Assad, and Kerry's comments indicated that the Americans are working to make sure that its aid doesn't fall into the wrong hands.

Syria's rebels get most of their arsenal from capturing government bases, but they also are believed to receive help from Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

ALMONITOR: While the United States and Russia continue, on the surface, to disagree over Syria, the recent flurry of diplomatic activity spearheaded by the two leading members of the Security Council suggests that there is more coordination between them than might appear at first glance. Given Turkey's current position, which appears to be rowing against the tide, it is not clear where Ankara will fit in as far as diplomatic efforts to end the Syrian crisis are concerned. All indications are that it still refuses to see the situation in Syria as a civil war, fed by sectarian and ethnic divisions, which in the end will require a negotiated settlement.

AntiWar: The Kerry administration is expanding to provide Syrian rebels with direct military aid, toward providing body armor, direct combat training and even armed personal carries to rebel factions.

Strategic-Culure.org: Several rebel commanders and fighters told Reuters that a shipment which reached Syria via Turkey last month comprised shoulder-held and other mobile equipment including anti-aircraft and armor-piercing weapons, mortars and rocket launchers.

Rebels told Reuters the weapons, along with money for cash payments for fighters, were being distributed through a new command structure, part of a plan by foreign backers to centralize control over rebel units and check Islamists linked to al-Qaeda. However, in a sign of the difficulty in uniting disparate fighting groups, some rebels said they had turned down the arms and refused to submit to the new command.

A Reuters photographer in Damascus over the last month saw several Western-built rebel firearms- including U.S. pattern M4 and Austrian Steyr assault rifles - that almost certainly came from outside the country.

Trend.Az: Although the Obama administration continues to refuse to directly arm the rebels, the administration has provided intelligence assistance to those who are involved in the supplies, and it also helps vet opposition forces. U.S. officials declined to comment on the new armaments.

*...Barack Obama must make an effort to promote a political resolution in Syria. This can be only without the support of FSA Islamists - it is for Israel in the context of Obama friend no other solution to search for a dialogue between Syria and seek the opposition.

Russia wants U.S. to help foster dialogue in Syria

News via Yahoo!

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will urge the United States on Tuesday to press the Syrian opposition to hold direct talks with Damascus, but fears "extremists" now have the upper hand among President Bashar al- Assad's opponents.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said before leaving for Berlin to meet Secretary of State John Kerry that the new U.S. top diplomat seemed to grasp the gravity of the crisis in Syria.

He said Washington should lean on the Syrian opposition to drop demands that Assad must leave power before talks can start.

"In our contacts with other countries that can influence the parties in Syria, we have noticed a growing understanding of the need to influence both the government and, first of all, the opposition so that they do not come up with unrealistic requests as preconditions for the start of dialogue," Lavrov said after talks with Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans.

"This is what we will discuss with John Kerry today. During our latest phone conversation I had the impression that he has an understanding of the acuteness of the situation in Syria."

Moscow and Washington have been at loggerheads over Syria, where 70,000 people have been killed in a nearly two- year-old conflict that began with a crackdown on street protests against Assad's rule.

Russia has been Assad's staunchest ally and, with China, blocked three U.N. Security Council resolutions aimed at mounting pressure on him to end the violence.

Washington has sided with the Syrian opposition in seeking Assad's removal from power.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said in Moscow on Monday that the government was ready for talks, but opposition leaders and rebel commanders insist Assad must go first.

Kerry responded dismissively to Moualem's offer, saying it was hard to understand how people having Scud missiles fired at them would take an offer of dialogue seriously. Syria denies using ballistic missiles in the fighting.

He also appeared to promise more concrete support to Assad's opponents, without saying whether the United States might rethink its earlier aversion to arming or training them.

"We are determined that the Syrian opposition is not going to be dangling in the wind," Kerry said in London on Monday.

Lavrov signaled that the prospects for direct talks in Syria had receded in the past few days.

"A few days ago it seemed that conditions for the sides to sit down for talks ... were getting clearer. There were calls in support of a quick start to dialogue," he said.

"But then came denials of such an approach. It seems extremists, who bet on a military solution to Syria's problems and block initiatives to start dialogue, have for now come to dominate in the ranks of the Syrian opposition, including in the so-called (Syrian) National Coalition," he added.

Western countries and some Arab states have accused Russia, a long-standing arms supplier to Damascus, of shielding Assad, whose Syrian opponents have bitterly denounced Russian policy.

Moscow has hit back by saying it has worked hard to try to persuade the two sides in Syria to start talks and accusing its Western allies of failing to do enough to support those efforts.

It also says support for the rebels plays into the hands of militant Islamists, a theme Assad himself often evokes.

(Editing by Timothy Heritage and Alistair Lyon)