Expert: Iran can block up to one third of world oil exports in case of war

Source :   Trend.Az

In  case of an attempt to solve the Iranian problem by military force, the country can block up to a third of the world's oil exports, largely through striking tankers that come from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, professor at Kazakh National University of Defense Georgiy Dubovtsev believes.

He said it cannot be said that a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities will not bring costly ramifications. Everything that could be destroyed would be rebuilt within a few years.

"And no one is capable of occupying Iran, as the population of this country is unwaveringly patriotic. Everyone will resist foreign invasion. But the results of such military attacks can be disastrous not only for the Gulf region, but for the whole world. Attacking Iran would not only result in a large-scale military conflict, but would also destabilize the situation in the entire Middle East, "Dubovtsev told journalists.

He said in case of war, Iran will have more arguments in favor of possessing nuclear weapons and abolition of the IAEA control system.

"Secondly, the Iranian government has sufficient methods to influence the U.S. and Israel, such the termination of oil supplies, supporting anti-Israeli and anti-American forces in the region and organizing direct rebel attacks via Lebanon," he said.

Via its ballistic missiles, Iran could also strike a blow at the U.S. military bases in the southern Persian Gulf. Enforcement actions can provoke active measures for organization of the world oil crisis, and not only by suspension of oil exports from Iran, which will push up prices for "black gold." In addition, Tehran, speaking as a victim, can find allies amongst Muslim nations.

"It is still important to pursue the same goal for the P5+1 group: the Iranian nuclear program should be resolved only through peaceful means. And if the Iranian side presents a clear report in Almaty, the U.S. is ready for a diplomatic solution of the problem by discussing it at the multilateral level," the expert said.

Almaty Nuke Talks to Reconcile Russian, EU Plans – Iran's FM

Source :   RIA Novosti

TEHRAN, February 11 (RIA Novosti) – This month’s upcoming talks on Iran’s nuclear program will be dedicated to reconciling Russian and European proposals on the issue, Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told RIA Novosti on Monday, just before leaving for Moscow.

Last year, Iran announced that it had put forward a five-point plan based on proposals outlined by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in 2011, Salehi said in an exclusive interview inside Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

Lavrov's plan had suggested a gradual easing of economic sanctions against Tehran in exchange for its increased collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Vienna-based global nuclear watchdog.

But the European Union has pitched a separate three-step plan, announced last month, for the nuclear program, Salehi said.

“Now the negotiating parties will try to find common ground between the two plans,” he added through an interpreter.

Salehi refused to elaborate on either plan’s details, but said that reconciling them would be the main focus of the meeting set for February 26 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries involved in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.

The P5+1, comprising the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – as well as Germany, is set to hold the meeting in Kazakhstan's former capital, Almaty. The group last met in June 2012, but made no breakthroughs.

Salehi also confirmed that Iran would not, for the time being, take up the US offer of direct bilateral talks, floated earlier this month by US Vice President Joe Biden and rebuffed by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But he added that such talks are possible in the unspecified future, if the United States gives up its “policies of threats and pressure.”

“You may say that their rhetoric has changed, becoming more positive. But it is still not enough yet,” Salehi said.

A number of Western countries have expressed fears that Iran's nuclear program is aimed at creating weapons, while Tehran insists it is purely peaceful and in line with international treaties.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry had said earlier that Salehi was set to hold talks in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, but Salehi himself denied this in the interview, saying he is only going to Russia to participate in a meeting of a joint commission on bilateral economic cooperation.

A number of agreements, including ones on trade, oil and agriculture, will be on the table during the meetings, set to be held in Moscow on Monday evening and Tuesday, Salehi said. He declined to give details prior to the talks.

Bilateral trade between Russia and Iran stood at $3.4 billion, or 0.3 percent of Russia's total foreign trade turnover, between January and November 2012, according to Russia's Federal Customs Service.